PKS Dukung Pencapresan Jokowi. Mungkinkah?

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Hersubeno Arief

Pertengahan bulan lalu Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (PKS) mengumumkan sembilan (9) nama bakal calon presiden (bacapres) yang akan diusung pada Pilpres 2019. Namun hampir satu bulan berlalu, belum ada tindak lanjut. Apakah bakal ada deklarasi atau cukup hanya sampai pengumuman itu saja, tanpa serimoni apapun?

Melihat banyaknya nama yang diusulkan, strategi apa yang tengah disiapkan oleh PKS? Seriuskah PKS mau mengajukan nama capres sendiri? Apakah langkah tersebut hanya sekedar untuk memanaskan mesin partai, atau sekedar menjajaki respon pasar, alias ‘check sound’?

Melihat perolehan suara, ataupun jumlah kursinya di DPR, dapat dipastikan PKS tidak bisa mengusung capresnya sendirian. Perolehan 40 kursi pada Pileg 2014, jauh dari kebutuhan minimal seperti yang diatur dalam ‘presidential threshold’ 25% total suara nasional, atau 20% kursi .

Dengan total jumlah anggota DPR sebanyak 560 orang, maka setidaknya diperlukan 112 kursi untuk bisa mengusung seorang capres. Jelas PKS butuh partai koalisi.

Kalau harus berkoalisi, dengan siapa PKS akan berkoalisi? Pasca Pilkada DKI Jakarta banyak kalangan umat Islam yang mengharapkan koalisi PKS dengan Gerindra dan PAN akan terus berlanjut di Pilkada serentak 2018, bahkan Pilpres 2019.

Ada harapan poros ini bisa mengalahkan poros Jokowi sebagaimana mereka berhasil mengalahkan Ahok yang didukung Jokowi di Pilkada DKI Jakarta. Apalagi Ketua Umum Gerindra Prabowo Subianto menyebut PKS sebagai sekutu, bukan sekedar partner koalisi.

Namun harapan itu mulai menjauh ketika peta koalisi di pilkada serentak tak searah dan sebangun dengan peta Pilkada DKI Jakarta.

Di Jawa Barat yang semula diharapkan bisa menjadi front kedua setelah Jakarta, koalisi PKS, Gerindra, dan PAN sempat berantakan ketika Deddy Mizwar yang semula digadang-gadang menjadi calon Gerindra menyeberang ke Demokrat. Mereka kembali menyatu setelah Gerindra menyodorkan nama Sudrajat sebagai cagub.

Di Jawa Timur PKS malah bergabung dengan PKB dan PDIP mengusung Saifullah Jusuf-Puti Guntur Soekarno. Sementara PAN dan Gerindra bergabung di kubu seberang mengusung Khofifah-Emil Dardak bersama Demokrat.

Sementara di Sulsel PKS dan PAN mengusung pasangan Nurdin Abdullah-Andi Sudirman Sulaiman, didukung oleh PDIP. Gerindra yang semula berada dalam satu kubu, membelot dengan mengusung pasangan Agus Arifin Nu’mang-Tanribali Lamo.

Masih banyak contoh lain PKS, Gerindra, dan PAN tidak selalu seiring sejalan, apalagi bila bicara sampai pilkada level kota/kabupaten. Kalkulasi politik, strategi dan kepentingan internal partai lebih banyak mewarnai pilihan mereka dalam menentukan koalisi, maupun figur kandidat.

Bukan tidak mungkin fenomena pilkada serentak, juga akan terjadi di pilpres mengingat kepentingan politiknya jauh lebih kental. Masih menjadi pertanyaan besar apakah PKS kembali berkoalisi dengan Gerindra dan PAN. Atau seperti peta pilkada, masing-masing punya kalkulasi dan kepentingan politik sendiri.

PKS bergabung dengan Jokowi?

Melihat peta perkubuan saat ini, Pilpres 2019 diperkirakan paling banyak memunculkan dua, maksimal tiga pasang kandidat. Kandidat keempat bisa saja muncul bila deal-deal politik diantara partai tidak menemui kata sepakat.

Yang sudah hampir pasti sebagai ‘incumbent’ Jokowi akan kembali berlaga. Siapa yang akan menjadi pasangannya, sangat menentukan berapa kandidat yang akan muncul.

Hampir semua nama yang disebut-sebut sebagai cawapres potensial berebut posisi untuk berpasangan dengan Jokowi. Mulai dari Kepala BIN Budi Gunawan yang kemungkinan diusung PDIP, Ketua Umum Golkar Airlangga Hartarto, Ketua Umum PKB Muhaimin Iskandar, Ketua Umum PPP Romahurmuzy, bahkan Agus Harimurti yang digadang-gadang Demokrat.

Jangan lupa ada Jusuf Kalla yang oleh sebagian kelompok di Golkar dan di PDIP masih diharapkan berpasangan kembali dengan Jokowi. Kalau tidak Kalla sendiri, setidaknya figur yang didukung Kalla.

Bagaimana dengan PKS. Apakah mungkin meninggalkan koalisi keumatan dan bergabung dengan Jokowi? Adagium dalam politik tidak ada musuh ataupun teman abadi tetap berlaku. Peta politik dalam pilkada, termasuk pecah kongsinya Koalisi Merah Putih (KMP) adalah bukti nyata.

Kendati tak ikut menyeberang seperti Golkar, PPP, dan PAN namun PKS juga tidak lagi sepenuhnya menjadi oposisi pemerintah. Beberapa bulan setelah terpilih menjadi Presiden PKS, M Sohibul Iman dan sejumlah pengurus DPP menemui Jokowi di Istana Merdeka. Sohibul kala itu menyebut PKS sebagai oposisi yang loyal.

Sejauh ini PKS juga tidak terlalu menunjukkan sikap yang keras dan bermusuhan dengan Jokowi. Terkesan PKS ingin menyampaikan pesan kepada Jokowi, bahwa kendati mereka oposisi, tapi mereka tidak akan “mengganggu” Jokowi.

Hal itu terlihat setidaknya dari sikap Sohibul yang dengan santai menyebut Jokowi mengikuti trend anak jaman now, ketika dia mengenakan kaos, saat peresmian kereta api bandara. Padahal banyak yang mengkritik Jokowi menabrak pakem kenegaraan. Sohibul juga mengapresiasi berbagai langkah pemerintah, termasuk soal Palestina.

Kesan baik itu sedikit “terganggu” ketika Ketua DPP PKS Mardani Ali Sera dalam talkshow ILC di TV One menyebut pada 2019, PKS ingin mengganti pemerintahan Jokowi. Kabarnya pernyataan Mardani ini mengundang kemarahan salah seorang anggota majelis syuro PKS.

Selain kunjungan Sohibul, Presiden Jokowi sendiri kabarnya juga secara gencar mendekati PKS, dan menawarkan menjadi mitra. Jokowi sangat sadar posisinya di kalangan umat Islam, terutama di perkotaan masih sangat lemah. Apabila berhasil menggaet PKS, maka akan menjadi keuntungan besar baginya.

Sebaliknya bagi PKS hubungan “benci dan rindu” dengan Jokowi ini harus ditangani secara hati-hati. Jangan sampai hal itu menjadi sebuah blunder. Siapa capres yang akan didukung, akan sangat menentukan perolehan suara dalam pileg. Sebab pilpres dan dilakukan secara serentak.

Survei yang dilakukan oleh Median pada September 2017 menunjukkan hampir semua pemilih PKS tidak akan memilih Jokowi pada Pilpres 2019. Hanya 2.5% pemilih PKS yang akan memilih Jokowi. Pemilih PKS kompak menilai Jokowi gagal menjalankan program kerjanya, karena itu tak layak dipilih kembali.

Dengan jumlah pemilih yang begitu rendah, jika sampai PKS memutuskan mendukung Jokowi, bisa menjadi semacam “bunuh diri” politik. Namun begitu bukan berarti otomatis PKS juga akan mendukung capres yang diusung Gerindra, dalam hal ini Prabowo. Survei yang sama juga menunjukkan pemilih PKS yang memilih Prabowo hanya 31.3%.

Di luar Jokowi, yang tampaknya juga berusaha melakukan pendekatan kepada PKS adalah PDIP. Kepentingan PDIP juga sama dengan Jokowi untuk mendekati kantong pemilih Islam. PKS menjadi sangat penting bagi PDIP, bila mereka terpaksa harus berpisah jalan dengan Jokowi dan mengusung capres sendiri.

Siapa terkuat?

Dari sembilan nama yang diusulkan PKS sebagai bacapres, yakni Gubernur Jabar Ahmad Heryawan, Wakil Ketua MPR Hidayat Nurwahid, mantan Presiden PKS Anis Matta, Gubernur Sumbar Irwan Prayitno, Ketua Majelis Syuro Salim Segaf Al Jufri, mantan Presiden PKS Tifatul Sembiring, Ketua DPP PKS Almuzammil Yusuf dan Mardani Ali Sera, siapa yang terkuat?

Ketua DPP Mardani Ali Sera menjagokan dua nama yakni Sohibul Iman, dan Anis Matta. Namun melihat _track record_ dan dukungan internal maupun eksternal, nampaknya mengerucut pada dua nama, yakni Ahmad Heryawan (Aher) dan Anis Matta.

Dua figur ini punya reputasi yang meyakinkan. Keduanya juga masih sama-sama relatif muda. Aher (51), sementara Anis (49).

Aher punya pengalaman birokrasi yang mumpuni. Dia gubernur Jabar selama dua periode dengan segudang prestasi. Bersama lima gubernur lainnya, Aher baru saja dinobatkan oleh Kemendagri sebagai gubernur terbaik. Yang juga harus diperhitungkan, Aher adalah representasi etnis Sunda (15%) yang menjadi etnis kedua terbesar setelah Jawa.

Etnis Sunda sudah cukup lama tidak punya representasi di puncak pemerintahan Indonesia. Diperkirakan mereka akan solid, bila ada tokoh Sunda yang tampil bertarung di kancah politik nasional, tanpa memandang latar belakang politiknya. Aher juga punya basis dukungan yang kuat di kalangan umat Islam, termasuk di luar PKS.

Anis Matta dikenal sebagai Sekjen abadi PKS. Sebelum menjadi Presiden PKS dia menjabat posisi sekjen selama 15 tahun, termasuk ketika masih bernama Partai Keadilan.
Kehebatannya terlihat saat dia berhasil mempertahankan, bahkan menambah suara PKS pada Pileg 2014, saat PKS porak poranda karena Presiden PKS Luthfi Hasan Ishaaq terjerat korupsi impor sapi.

Anis Matta adalah seorang ‘turn around artist’. Dia bisa mengubah sebuah kekalahan menjadi kemenangan.

Anis Matta punya jaringan dan komunikasi yang cukup kuat dengan partai-partai lain. Terbukti saat dia menjadi salah satu motor dari Koalisi Merah Putih (KMP) dan beroposisi dengan Presiden Jokowi.

Anis Matta juga punya networking yang luas di dunia internasional khususnya negara-negara Afrika Utara, Timur-Tengah, Turki dan juga negara tetangga Malaysia. Sebagai etnis Bugis, Anis juga merupakan representasi dari Indonesia Timur seperti halnya Jusuf Kalla.

Dari dua nama tersebut, apabila benar salah satunya yang dimunculkan, akan memberi daya tawar yang cukup kuat bagi PKS di mata partner koalisi.

Secara internal keduanya juga punya pendukung yang cukup solid. Aher terpilih sebagai peraih suara terbanyak dalam pemilihan raya (pemira) sebuah mekanisme internal PKS untuk memilih bacapres.

Sementara Anis, kendati sudah lama menghilang dan lebih banyak berkelana ke berbagai negara, terpilih sebagai peraih suara ketiga terbanyak. Ini menunjukkan para pendukungnya juga masih sangat kuat. End

10/2/18

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